Russian Invasion of Ukraine

A lot has happened since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an independent sovereign state. Finally the tide has turned and Ukraine was able to take back a big swath of land within about a week.

The Beginning

On February 24, 2022, Russia fired hundreds of missiles, attacking Ukraine's military infrastructure prior to a land invasion involving almost 200,000 troops on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine. Thousands of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket and missile launchers, and other modern military equipment poured in, pounding Ukrainian cities.

In the east, they overtook a large portion of Luhansk and part of Donetsk, the breakaway region that is together called Donbas and has been partially controlled by separatists since 2014. They also took part of the Kharkiv region and began an attack on the second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv. The northern front is where the Russians concentrated most of their effort initially, not only because of the proximity of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, to the border with Belarus, but also because of its strategic, economic, and symbolic importance. Kiev is the largest city in Ukraine, with a population of about 3 million in a nation of 44 million people. Russia pressed Belarus to allow its military to attack Ukraine from within Belarus.

Russia has a population of about 145 million, a higher per capita GDP than Ukraine, and the third largest military in the world-much stronger than Ukraine's. Their fighter planes, tanks, and other military equipment not only outnumber Ukraine's but are more advanced. Russia also fought in and helped win the war for the Syrian dictator Assad and has more fighting experience.

The prediction of everyone in the world was that the whole of Ukraine would be overtaken in a matter of weeks, if not days. This was further supported by the less-than-optimal readiness of Kiev before the war. U.S. intelligence had warned Ukraine about the Russian invasion for months, as Russian troops conducted drills along the border. Kiev did not mobilize its people and military sufficiently before the attack, probably fearing that it would destabilize the country as well as make it an easier target if Russia delayed its invasion further. Kiev's lack of preparation led to its initial loss of military assets and areas, making its hold on the country even more untenable. Within a few days, Russia's military occupied about 30% of Ukraine. However, all was not lost. Ukrainian president Zelensky responded to the offer by Western partners to take him to exile with the now famous words, "Give me ammunition, not a ride." Western partners were somewhat skeptical of Ukraine's will to fight. After all, the U.S. in particular had lost billions of dollars of modern military equipment to the Taliban just a year earlier, and the Biden administration was blamed for the tragic ending of the disastrous decades-long Afghanistan War due to the lack of Afghan resolve. The U.S. didn't want to lose even more to a much more sophisticated adversary, Russia, who could then reverse engineer the modern equipment and pose a huge danger to American soldiers in any future conflicts. Western nations also feared an escalation to a direct confrontation with Russia, a nation so apparently powerful, with a macho military culture, and many thousands of nuclear warheads that could destroy the world many times over.

However, Ukraine's military started to slow the Russian advance and fought them to a standstill on almost all fronts. It also destroyed the elite Russian Airborne troops that tried to assault airports around Kiev. It seems that the training by NATO members since the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea helped modernize the Ukrainian military from its former Soviet form.

Foreign Aid

Western arms start to pour in, first in the form of infantry arms such as antitank missiles, including the NLAW by the U.K. and Javelin by the U.S., as well as air defense missiles such as Sting by the U.S. These systems-easy to carry, learn, and use-were employed effectively by the Ukrainians to destroy armored Russian vehicles. Hundreds of Russian tanks and infantry vehicles were smashed. The battles around Kiev were particularly favorable to the Ukrainians, as ample woods and destroyed buildings provided cover for Ukrainian military. In urban combat, the attacking party usually suffers more casualties as every broken window in all the buildings around the attackers can produce the shots to terminate the attackers. Russian logistics were poor from the start and became much worse due to focused Ukrainian attacks on supplies such as fuel and food trucks. Many of their armored vehicles became sitting ducks and soldiers went hungry. The attrition rate was high due to frostbite, as even April can be bitterly cold in countries such as Russia and Ukraine.

After suffering huge casualties, the Russians eventually gave up taking Kiev and all of the northeastern part of Ukraine. Reports of torture and summary executions of civilians also surfaced in this area, especially in Bucha, a Kiev Donbas region and the south region suburb, although their atrocities were evident everywhere. Russians also suburb, although their atrocities were evident everywhere. Russians also continued to attack non-military targets, sometimes killing hundreds of women and children in one attack. For example, they killed approximately 300 women, children, and elderly after bombing the Mariupol theatre that was being used as a refuge, with an enormous sign warning of children on the ground that could be seen clearly from the sky.

Switched Focus

Russians switched their focus to the east near Mariupol, which is very flat and has limited forest for cover and maneuvering. The kind of warfare fought on such terrain is dominated by heavy artillery that can kill adversaries from tens of miles away. Russians resorted to bigger stockpiles of ammunition to grind Ukrainian defenders nearly to dust as its military inched forward. Thousands of Ukrainian Marines and Azov battalion troops fought the Russians until they ran out of food and ammo after being encircled in sprawling Azov Steel plants, which became Ukraine's Alamo. After fighting Russian troops for months, Ukrainians finally yielded Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the last two Luhansk cities in their control. Even though the Russian advance was very slow, it continued moving forward. In contrast, Ukrainian cannons ran short of the Soviet ammo they used. Although Western allies delivered a significant number of cannons and ammo, it was not enough, and Russian attacks were more than what the Ukrainians could respond to.

However, things started to change, although very slowly. The continuous fighting killed tens of thousands of Russian troops and wounded many more, according to the U.S. Department of Defense. Russia exhausted a huge portion of its existing military equipment and ammo. The Western partners continued to provide billions of dollars of support, which culminated in High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HMARS), able to attack a target from up to 300 kilometers away with a potential maximum error of one meter. The U.S.'s Biden administration used deft skills and political capital to build and maintain a fragile international coalition that continued to supply Ukrainians, contributing the lion's share, all after realizing that the fighting will of the Ukrainians was completely different from that of the Afghans. The HMARS rockets given to Ukraine, with a range of 85 kilometers, were used to destroy many ammunition depots, fuel depots, and command centers of the Russian military deep behind the front lines, further weakening Russian command and logistics, and making it difficult for Russians to concentrate logistics and command, and maybe even troops.

Conclusion

Finally, as everyone expected a stalemate for months, if not years, to come, Ukraine announced its intention to counterattack in the south during the fall. Almost everyone had a limited expectation of the counterattacks, which were forced by and intended to disrupt the sham potential referendum that Russia planned to run in Kherson in September to claim it as part of Russia. The counterattacks were also to show the Western partners that Ukraine can take back territories and that Western support is valuable, as domestic pressure was erupting in response to the high inflation, partly due to the economic embargos between the West and Russia. The West has embargoed all trade and exchanges, while Russia has cut off the gas supply to Europe, which relies heavily on Russian gas for industries and for winter heating, especially Germany. It was also the last chance to conduct any attack before the bitter winter settled in.

The counteroffensive in the south was slow and limited, with minimal progress, just as most people expected. However, as a result, Russia moved a large number of troops and supplies to the south to stop the attacks and prepare to push back. That was exactly what Ukraine intended, as it concentrated a large number of troops in the east Kharkiv region and started the push to retake that region in early September. Within about a week, the agile Ukrainian troops had retaken about 6,000 square kilometers of its territories, mostly in the Kharkiv region-about the same amount of land the Russians had taken in the previous few months. Russian troops beat a hasty retreat after the crucial logistics hub, Izyum, was quickly taken by Ukrainians. The loss of Izyum also threatened a total collapse of the land taken by Russians in Luhansk in the previous few months, as it is on the main supply route to those lands. There was even talk of a total collapse of the Russian invasion by the end of year.

Against all odds, Ukraine seems to be stopping the Russians, even retaking territories with success. The Western alliance still holds and is more united than before the war. Notably, NATO, Putin's sworn enemy, accepted two new members, Finland and Sweden, both with long borders with Russia and modern and capable militaries that were previously neutral for decades or centuries. The days of Russian invasion may be much more limited than previously expected, if not numbered.

Sources

Coles, Isabel, Ukraine's Rapid Advance in East Puts Russian Forces on Defensive, Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-eastern-advance-puts-forces-close-to-key- town-11662718470. Accessed on September 17, 2022.

Hopkins, Valerie, About 300 people died in the Mariupol theater attack, local officials say. New York Times, March 25, 2022, Mariupol Accessed on September 17, 2022.

Kramer, Andrew, and Andrew Higgins, Ukraine Routs Russian Forces in Northeast, Forcing a Retreat, New York Times, September 11, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/11/world/europe/ukraine-kharkiv-russian- retreat.html. Accessed on September 17, 2022.

Olearchyk, Roman, Ukraine steps up offensive with push east into Donbas, Financial Times, September 13, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/eeecf636-adb4-424a-9cc7-5609af86a7bc. Accessed on September 17, 2022.